Evolution is a particularly apt term to describe the development of analytical sciences. In reviewing the past 50 years of mass spectrometry
(MS), it became clear that evolution's usual iterative progress was interrupted more than a few times by unforeseen instrumental
developments, external pressures of law or regulation, and sometimes by a powerful dose of publicity. George Bernard Shaw
said, "All evolution in thought and conduct must first appear as heresy and misconduct." Evolution, especially at the rapid
pace evident in MS, often made its practitioners uncomfortable, and sometimes somewhat less welcoming of new ways of doing
things propounded by the heretics. Resistance may be natural, but it has always been futile, and after 50 years of inevitable
evolution in MS, we might start to characterize it and strive to understand some of the driving factors.
Figure 1
We previously described the S-curve of innovation as it describes the development of inductively coupled plasma–mass spectrometry
(ICP-MS). In 1962, Everett M. Rogers published a book entitled Diffusion of Innovations, in which he described the spread of innovations through an S-curve model (Figure 1). Early adopters select and explore the
technology first, followed by the larger majority, with the process continuing until a technology or innovation becomes commonplace.
The figure shows labels that might appeal more to Mr. Shaw and to us — heretics, pioneers, adopters and adapters, and finally
the beneficiaries. The general validity of the S-curve as a model of technical innovation is widely accepted, and it fits
the evolution of MS in the United States. The curve in MS is particularly steep and especially evanescent, as one curve soon
gives way to the next, as new instruments, new ionization methods, new interpretations, and new demands for information sweep
aside old MS to carve out new audiences. The curve describes an inevitable evolution and does not provide a specific forecast.
As we assess details of MS development at a particular time, we can gauge the placement of that point in time on the curve.
Many resources describe the evolution and history of MS; Michael Grayson's presentations for ASMS are always insightful and
complete. Adopting a wider perspective, I describe the evolution of MS in terms of simple synergistic factors that can be
described and evaluated — who did it, where it was done, how it was paid for, what it was done with, when it was presented,
and finally why.
